About statsfortrading.com

The Story Behind this Site

My name is Nick Vorves.  In 1992 I started a computer service business.  The business initially focused on hardware repairs and networking.  We also sold computers, but our focus was on service.  Eventually we branched into software development.
 
At one stage of my business, I downsized considerably.  I had some cash and some time, so I decided to get into the stock market.  I took Wade Cook’s course (don’t laugh) and promptly lost a considerable amount of money.  As I delved deeper into the markets, it occurred to me that stock pricing pretty much went with the overall market.  One thing led to another and I eventually made my way to the S&P Futures.  At that time, I was trading the full contract, $250.00 a point.  I was day trading 2 contracts.  I started on Monday and was up $6000.00 a few days later.  Then a trade got away from me and I lost over $10,000.00 on one trade.  Needless to say, I was sick about it.  It damaged me profoundly and it eventually led me to stop trading.
 
I was kind of hooked, though.  I went back to building my business but always had trading in the back of my mind somewhere.  I would dip my toe in, every once in a while, and loose a few dollars.  I would then go back to running my business.  I always thought I could make a living in the market.  Fast forward a few years and I sold my business and took an early retirement.  I was 51 years old. 
 
I decided to get back into the markets.  I bought some courses and took my time.  I made my way back to the futures.  I learned and watched, and SIM traded for a long time.  
 
At some point I began to be focused on statistics and probabilities.  I began to run my own stats.  Many would say they had probability set ups that had some high probability success.  I ran my own stats and found out that some claims were dubious.  I learned some important things, though.
 
If you don’t have some sense of the statistical probability of a trade, you might as well give away your money.
 
Stats are not the "holy grail”.  They are just another tool in your toolbox.  For instance, knowing that your market hits the Overnight High or Low 85% of the time can be enormously helpful on certain trades.  Knowing that the period between 9:30 and 10:00 will exceed the period of 9:00 to 9:30 95% of the time can help you make calculated trade decisions when you combine them with your trade setups.  If you have a trade setup that has an 75% conditional probability and you combine it with another scenario that has an 75% conditional probability, you get probability stacking, a method of adding different probablilities together and getting a new probablility.  Two conditional 75% probablilites add up to a 90% probablity when added together.  I am oversimplifying things here. Things like stop loss triggers complicate things but I hope you get the idea. (Future Blog Article planned to explain adding probabilities together, stay tuned.)
 
Compiling your own market stats, can be time consuming though.  I started this website service to provide these market stats so that traders can quickly see what the current stats are on a daily, weekly, monthly and more basis.  I will not claim that this is the ultimate secret to successful trading, but I do claim that it helps.  I would not want to trade without knowing what the probability of success is.  For those of you who take trading seriously, are disciplined, and are not in it for the excitement then this service is for you.
  

Who This Site is For

This site is for Futures Traders.  We only publish stats on select futures instruments.  At this time, we do not publish any stats on Forex, Stocks or Bonds.  

This site is for those who take trading seriously.  It is for those who understand that probabilities and statistics are essential to trade decisions.  It is for those who know that Data and Facts must override emotion.  It is also for those who are struggling with trading.  There are many who claim that Psychology is more important than trade set ups and money management.  I am not disputing that.  Execution comes from confidence.  If you are confident that the statistics and probabilities are in your favor and in alignment with your money management on all given trades, then execution becomes easier.   I’m not downplaying the difficulty of trade execution.  Most of use have experienced significant loss and this can leave an indelible mark on our psyche.  

This site is for those who are looking for another tool to put in their trading toolbox.

This site is also for brand new futures traders, those who want to get their trading started of on the right foot.  If I could have avoided substantial losses in my early days by taking the correct approach to the market, maybe I could have retired even earlier. 

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Who This Site is NOT For

This site is NOT for those who only trade Forex, Stocks or Bonds, at least not at this time.  This site is not for gamblers, those who trade for fun.  This site is not for those who are looking for the nonexistant "Holy Grail" of trading.  Trading is a serious business, so this site is not for those who take trading lightly.

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My Commitment to You

I believe everything on this site is true and accurate.  Accuracy and factualness is important to me.  If you find that any of my data is off, please let me know, but please back it up with hard data.  I don’t claim to be perfect.  Please remember that due to time frames, bar sizes and other factors, some data may not match up perfectly.  Things should be very close, and the differences should not be statistically significant.

I will not exaggerate data, facts, or statistics, nor will I try to persuade you to make trade decisions.  Trade decisions are entirely up to you.  You should make decisions based on Data, Facts and Statistical Probabilities.  I will not make any kind of trade recommendations.  I may state my opinions on various instruments, on occasion.  These should not be construed as any kind of recommendations.  I recommend one thing and one thing only:  Use Statistics and Probabilities in your trade decisions!  That’s it, that is my only recommendation.  I am not a guru and you should not look to me to become a better trader.  Do I believe this site can help make you a better trader?  Absolutely!  Do I think I can make you a better trader?  Not really.  There is more to trading success than statistics and probabilities.  There is trading psychology, trade setups, money management.  I am merely providing you data to help you make your trade decisions.  Most of the stats I provide, you could calculate yourself.  I’m merely trying to save you time and provide you with another tool in your trading toolbox at an attractive price.  That being said, I do love helping people.  It is my hope that this site helps you become either a successful trader or a more successful trader.

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In My Opinion

Everything on this site, EXCEPT THE STATS, should be viewed as my opinion.  Why should you trust my opinion?  YOU SHOULDN’T!  

Trust the STATS.  

You may find my opinions helpful and entertaining.  I hope you do.  But please remember, they are just mine.

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Stat Rules

There are some things you should fundamentally know about the stats I publish.

The stats are based on fixed aspects of the market, things that are the same for everyone, not variables.  Why is this important?  Indicators are variable.  Indicators  have settings that are uniquiqe to each user, therefore, statistics would not be consistent for every subscriber.  There could be indicators that would display the information provided by the stat.  For instance, there are indicators that show the Overnight High or Overnight Low (ONH or ONL).  These would be consistent for all traders.  Another example is IBP (Inital Balance Period).  There are indicators that will create lines or boxes showing IBP, IBP 1.5, IBP 2.0, etc.

We will define the basis for our stats.  Using the above ONH/ONL example.  Some may define this differently.  Our stats use the Goblex High and Low to base our stats on.  For IBP we use the first hour or the first 2 30 minute periods for our statistics.  Please look at our Glossary to make sure our terms match up with your indicators, if you are using them.

If and when there are exceptions to these rules, I will attempt to be very clear about what indicator settings should be.  In general, if any stats are based on an indicator, the indicator would be available for free.  I use paid indicators in my trading, but I have no plans on publishing stats that would require you to purchase an indicator.

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Requesting New Stats

In the future, I plan on providing a method for subsribers to request new stats.  If I get enough requests for a similar stat, I will consider publishing it, if it is based on our rules.  Please see "Stat Rules" for the rules for our stats.

I need to be cautious here.  It will need to be a stat that I can incorporate into my methodology.  If a stat is too time consuming to create, it could impact my own ability to trade.  Please don’t be offended if a stat request isn’t quickly adobted or provided.

If you request a stat, you must clearly define it.  It must not be based on a specific platform or indicator.  It must be something that everyone would benefit from. 

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